China's 2023-2024 net HDPE imports:

NOBODY IN the petrochemicals industry really knows what’s happening inside any government and how that translates to policies for our industry, no matter how well connected they believe they are.

This makes understanding policy direction essentially a guessing game, based on always imperfect access to policy details and – here is the key – interpretations of how policies might be applied. It is one thing to set a new direction for petrochemicals, but on-the-ground implementation of that direction is almost an entirely separate thing.

This is not me talking, but instead some “wise old hands” who work, or have worked, at very senior levels in petrochemical companies. I’ve known some of these guys (and its mainly guys, unfortunately) for more than 20 years.

China’s percentage shares of global capacities in higher-value products are forecast by ICIS to substantially increase in 2024 compared with 2022.

For example, China’s share of global capacities of acrylic acid esters is expected to jump to 13% in 2024 from 1% in 2022. China’s share of ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) copolymers, some of which can be high value, is forecast to rise to 17% in 2024 from 8% in 2022.

China 2024-2034 HDPE net imports at either 105m tonnes or 19m tonnes

For illustration purposes only, let me show you what can be done with our data to produce scenarios for China’s net imports of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) in 2024-2034, factoring in the variables detailed above.

These scenarios need refining in the context of, as I said, workshops with the support of our excellent analytics team in China and our global consulting team.

You always need to start with a base case. The ICIS base for China’s net HDPE imports in 2024-2034 assumes that capacity will grow by 5.7m tonnes/year as demand increases by an average of 3% per year with the operating rate averaging 73%.

This would compare with 2000-2023 annual average demand growth of 9% and an operating rate of 93%.

Scenario 2 involves only 3.7m tonnes/year capacity growth between 2024 and 2025. I have also assumed that 1.1m tonnes/year of HDPE plants, each with capacities of less than 100,000 tonnes/year, will shut down from 2025 onwards as part of China’s drive to improve economic efficiency and lower carbon output.

Under Scenario 2, I have kept demand growth and the operating rate unchanged from our base case at 3% and 73% respectively.

Scenario 3 involves the same capacity growth and shutdowns as Scenario 2. But I raise the operating rate to 93% while keeping demand growth at 3%.

Scenario 4 involves the same capacity growth and shutdowns as Scenarios 2 and 3. The operating rate is again 93%, but I lower demand growth to just 1%.

The chart below shows these four different outcomes in terms of net imports for selected years between 2024 and 2034.

Source:John Richardson,ICIS

Visit MY BLOG http://polymerguru.blogspot.com

#polymers #polyethylene #hdpe #eva #china #import #economic #growth

Today's KNOWLEDGE Share:Petrochemicals Historical timeline- Part 5

Today's KNOWLEDGE Share:

Petrochemicals Historical timeline- Part 5

1937 Ethylene glycol and propylene glycol become available as an anti-freeze. Methanol was used until this time.

1937 German chemist Otto Bayer patents polyurethane and further tests created moulded foam with bubbles. Between 1943 and 1944, the

Germans secretly used polyurethane on wartime aircraft components. In the post-war years, it became highly successful in mattresses, insulation

and furniture padding. Polyurethane is also used in paints, varnishes and sportswear fabrics.

1938 First major discovery of oil in Saudi Arabia.

1938 Dow Chemical Company introduces STYRON polystyrene resins.

1938 American chemist Roy Plunkett develops Teflon after accidentally exploding tetrafluoroethylene gas. The white, waxy powder that

remained was a polymer of tetrafluoroethylene which was used as the basis for Teflon, a new non-stick, heat-resistant plastic. Gore-Tex, the breathable, waterproof textile, is also a result of this discovery.

1939-1945 World War II. During this time, the US supplied more than 80% of aviation gasoline and American refineries manufactured synthetic rubber, toluene, medicinal oils and other important petrochemical-based military supplies.

1941 DuPont chemists John R. Whinfield and James T. Dickinson created the polyester fibre from ethylene, glycol and terephthalic acid. This was called Terylene and was manufactured by ICI.

(to be continued soon)

Source:World Petroleum Council Guide

Visit MY BLOG http://polymerguru.blogspot.com

#petrochemicals #teflon #pu #gasoline #rubber

#polyesterfabric #gylcol #terephthalicacid #terylene

Montauk Renewables, Inc. Signs Letter of Intent with European Energy to Provide CO2 for e-Methanol Production

Montauk Energy Holdings, LLC, announced the Company signed a Letter of Intent (“LOI”) with EE North America, LLC (“EE North America”), a North American subsidiary of Denmark–based European Energy, to deliver all biogenic Carbon Dioxide (“CO2”) volumes from all its Texas facilities sufficient for large scale production of e-fuels such as e-methanol. The initial delivery period is expected to begin in 2026 and is expected to last for 15 years upon final agreement. The LOI immediately commits Montauk’s CO2 from its Texas facilities to EE North America’s Texas project.

EE North America is a North American subsidiary of Denmark–based European Energy that, for the past 19 years, has been committed to being a leading player in the development of renewable energy. EE North America intends to construct a Power-to-X facility in Texas that would take the biogenic CO2 from Montauk’s locations and use it in the production of e-methanol. The e-methanol would then be used to fuel vessels for maritime shipping operations. The LOI between Montauk and EE North America assists Montauk in synchronizing capital commitment timing at its Texas facilities with EE North America’s project.

The planned delivery would prevent a critical amount of biogenic CO2 from entering the atmosphere and put it to beneficial use, creating a new fixed-price commodity revenue stream for Montauk.

“The expected agreement between Montauk and EE North America will have a positive impact on the global reduction of CO2, a greenhouse gas that contributes to climate change, while continuing to expand and diversify our revenue sources, in this case with fixed-price commodity sales,” said Sean McClain, CEO of Montauk. “Our relationship with European Energy is another example of Montauk’s commitment to environmental stewardship, its multi-faceted development strategy, its ability to align itself with industry leaders and its commitment to enhancing shareholder value.”

EE North America's CEO, Lorena Ciciriello, expressed her enthusiasm for the agreement, stating, "By thinking creatively, building robust relationships, and strategically assembling the pieces for long-term growth, we are at the forefront of the clean energy transition. With genuine excitement and a shared vision, EE North America and Montauk are forging a powerful partnership, propelling us towards a brighter and more sustainable tomorrow. Our passion for driving the transition to cleaner energy fuels our dedication every step of the way."

Source: Montauk Renewables/globenewswire
Visit MY BLOG https://lnkd.in/fcSeK9e

UBC researchers turn black bitumen into green carbon fibres

Bitumen, the sticky product from Alberta’s oil sands, is normally burned as fuel or gets a second life as asphalt pavement. But what if it could be turned into something more valuable, like the carbon fibres that make aircraft and hockey sticks light and durable, and electric cars safer and more efficient?

Cheaper fibres:

UBC materials engineer Dr. Yasmine Abdin and her colleagues, Dr. Frank Ko in the faculty of applied science and Dr. Scott Renneckar in the faculty of forestry, have developed a way to convert bitumen into commercial-grade carbon fibres.

Their solution, described recently in the journal Advances in Natural Sciences: Nanoscience and Nanotechnology, uses melt spinning to produce two sizes of fibres cleanly and economically. Projected cost is $12 per kilo, compared to commercial carbon fibres that normally cost $33 per kilo.

The solution won the first two phases of the Carbon Fibre Grand Challenge, a competition launched by Alberta Innovates to recover valuable products from oil sands, and the team plans to apply for the third phase of the challenge.

Electric dreams

The team expects to start commercial production in 2024, and sees wide applications for their carbon fibres in electric cars, improving vehicle performance and ultimately helping to boost EV adoption rates.

“Carbon-fibre bodies can compensate for the weight of the typical EV battery pack. Using carbon fibres in the chassis helps the battery stay cool, improving safety and extending the driving range,” says Dr. Abdin.

With around one million cars and other light vehicles being manufactured in Canada annually, she adds, using local carbon fibres can give automakers a competitive edge, while supporting Canada’s goals for reducing emissions.

Photo: Dr. Yasmine Abdin (right) and her collaborators are transforming bitumen from Alberta’s oilsands into carbon fibre – at much less cost than what is currently available.

Photo credit: UBC Applied Science/Paul Joseph

Source:www.ubc.ca/jeccomposites

Visit MY BLOG http://polymerguru.blogspot.com

#composites #carbonfiber #bitumen #nanomaterials #aircraft #hockeysticks

Today's KNOWLEDGE Share: Rolls-Royce

Today's KNOWLEDGE Share:

Rolls-Royce has entered the final build phase for the world's largest aero-engine technology demonstrator, UltraFan, which provides a suite of technologies to support sustainable air travel. The demonstrator engine, with a fan diameter of 140 inches, is being completed at the company's facility in Derby, UK, prior to its first run on 100% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) later this year. It offers a 25% fuel efficiency improvement compared with the first generation of Trent engines!

Chris Cholerton, President — Civil Aerospace, Rolls-Royce, said, "Our UltraFan engine technology demonstrator is arriving just as the world is seeking transformative technology to deliver sustainability. We are now in the final build phase and we will perform the first test run on 100% sustainable aviation fuel later this year. The suite of technologies we are testing on the demonstrator will create opportunities to make improvements to our current fleet and provide a new capability for future propulsion systems.

Key engineering features of the engine include:

- Carbon titanium fan blades and a composite casing.

- A new, proven, Advance3 core architecture, combined with our ALECSys lean burn combustion system, to deliver maximum fuel burn efficiency and low emissions.

- Advanced ceramic matrix composite (CMC) components that operate more effectively at high pressures and temperatures.

- A geared design that delivers efficient power for the high-thrust, high bypass ratio engines of the future. The power gearbox has run at 64MW, an aerospace record.

Source: Airways Magazine

Visit MY BLOG http://polymerguru.blogspot.com

#composites #compositematerials #cfrp #gfrp #fan  #fibers #lightweight #reinforcedplastics #gearbox

My Linkedin Group "Polymer Experts" has crossed 50,000 members today

Dear Valued Member,

I am happy to share with you all that our "Polymer Experts" Linkedin Group has reached the 50,000 members mark today. Without your support,we would have reached this heights in Linkedin platform.I would proudly say it has been a splendid journey of 15 years on Linkedin from its inception in 2008.

I must thank you all for your valuable contribution by sharing the latest technical information,polymeric materials, types of machinery,market research info,new product launch,breakthrough technology,latest scientific research article in the polymer world, etc. on this group through this platform.I have witnessed the activiness of the members in group have  increased many folds which is highly impressive in the past couple of years.

Without your support, we would not have reached this milestone in 2023.
 It is my pleasure to share our Today's KNOWLEDGE Share column daily (except weekends) in our Polymer Experts group which has gained and lauded by the pioneers in the Polymer industry.We will continue to cover up more sustainable materials information in the future.

I thank you all for your support and request you to share any valuable  suggestions to enhance the standard of the Polymer Experts Linkedin Group with more actions towards inspiring many minds in the coming days.

Muthuramalingam Krishnan
Group Owner
Polymer Experts Linkedin Group

Anti-biofilm Polymer to Prevent Bacterial Biofilm Formation in Water Systems

The University of Nottingham has collaborated with water management company Angel Guard for the first time to create a polymer that could save thousands of lives.

Together, they have developed a world-first anti-biofilm polymer called Bactigon®️/KELT-7, which prevents bacterial biofilm formation, reducing the risk of deadly infections that cause many thousands of deaths each year.

It achieves this without the need for antibiotics or other toxic diffusible agents, meaning it will not contribute to the build-up of anti-bacterial resistance, which is one of the key future healthcare issues identified by the World Health Organization.

Can be Applied as Spray Coating, Dipping Process or by 3D Printing:

The brand-new anti-biofilm polymer is a vital tool to not only protect water systems, where it will be initially utilized, but also to protect public health at large. It has also been created to extremely unique specifications that allow it to be used as a plastic construction material. Its design is very versatile, allowing it to be applied as a spray coating, dipping process or by utilizing 3D printing techniques – further expanding the range of possible applications it can be applied to.

The development of the Bactigon®️/KELT-7 polymer will enable manufacturers to build-in anti-biofilm properties into their existing product line, ensuring that water systems remain biofilm free and prevent infections to end-users.

Unlike silver and zinc additive solutions that often lose their benefits when immersed in water, this world-first polymer prevents bacterial pathogen biofilm growth even when submerged in water, making it a very attractive option for use in water, sanitary fixtures, fittings, and plumbing systems among many other applications.

“Working with Angel Guard has, and continues to be, an extremely rewarding experience. It is allowing us to develop some of our paradigm changing fundamental research into real world impact,” Derek Irvine, professor of Materials Chemistry in the Faculty of Engineering.

Professor Irvine continued, "This allows us to deliver societal benefits from the investment made into Nottingham’s research by the EPSRC, Wellcome Trust and Angel Guard. It is a very strong example of how knowledge transfer and exchange with industry can have benefits for people all over the world.”

A key challenge in the development of the material was finding an anti-biofilm polymer that could withstand high temperatures in-line with current hot cleaning procedures. The new polymer, with both anti-biofilm and durable properties, was designed and shown to be able to coat o-rings used in potable water systems using a simple dip-coating procedure.

Source: University of Nottingham

Visit MY BLOG http://polymerguru.blogspot.com

#bacterialresistance #biofilm #polymers #bactigon